Now, Boeing goes for a high-stakes redo of that mission. On August 3, Orbital Flight Check 2, or OFT-2, will ship Starliner to the ISS once more. The corporate can not afford one other failure.
“There’s numerous credibility at stake right here,” says Greg Autry, an area coverage knowledgeable at Arizona State College. “Nothing is extra seen than area programs that fly people.”
The afternoon of July 30 was a stark reminder of that visibility. After Russia’s new 23-ton multipurpose Nauka module docked with the ISS, it started firing its thrusters unexpectedly and with out command, shifting the ISS out of its correct and regular place in orbit. NASA and Russia fastened the issue and had issues stabilized in underneath an hour, however we nonetheless don’t know what occurred, and it’s unnerving to suppose what may have occurred if circumstances had been worse. The entire incident remains to be underneath investigation and has compelled NASA to postpone the Starliner launch from July 31 to August 3.
It’s exactly this sort of near-disaster Boeing needs to keep away from, for OFT-2 and any future mission with individuals onboard.
How Starliner acquired right here
The shutdown of the area shuttle program in 2011 gave NASA an opportunity to rethink its strategy. As a substitute of constructing a brand new spacecraft designed for journey to low Earth orbit, the company elected to open up alternatives to the non-public sector as a part of a brand new Industrial Crew Program. It awarded contracts to Boeing and SpaceX to construct their very own crewed autos: Starliner and Crew Dragon, respectively. NASA would purchase flights on these autos and focus its personal efforts on constructing new applied sciences for missions to the moon, Mars, and elsewhere.
Each corporations hit improvement delays, and for 9 years NASA’s solely method of attending to area was by handing over hundreds of thousands of {dollars} to Russia for seats on Soyuz missions. SpaceX lastly despatched astronauts to area in Might 2020 (adopted by two extra crewed missions since), however Boeing remains to be lagging behind. Its December 2019 flight was presupposed to show that every one its programs labored, and that it was able to docking with the ISS and returning to Earth safely. However a glitch with its internal clock triggered it to execute a essential burn prematurely, making it not possible to dock with the ISS.
A subsequent investigation revealed {that a} second glitch would have triggered Starliner to fireside its thrusters on the fallacious time when making its descent again to Earth, which may have destroyed the spacecraft. That glitch was fastened mere hours earlier than Starliner was set to return again residence. Software program points aren’t surprising in spacecraft improvement, however they’re issues Boeing could have resolved ahead of time with better quality control or better oversight from NASA.
Boeing has had 21 months to repair these issues. NASA by no means demanded one other Starliner flight check; Boeing elected to redo it and foot the $410 million invoice by itself.
“I absolutely anticipate the check to go completely,” says Autry. “These issues concerned software program programs, and people needs to be simply resolvable.”
What’s at stake
If issues go fallacious, the repercussions will depend upon what these issues are. Ought to the spacecraft expertise one other set of software program issues, there’ll seemingly be hell to pay, and it’s very onerous to see how Boeing’s relationship with NASA may get better. A catastrophic failure for different causes would even be unhealthy, however area is risky, and even tiny issues which can be onerous to anticipate and management for can result in explosive outcomes. That could be extra forgivable.
If the brand new check doesn’t succeed, NASA will nonetheless work with Boeing, however a re-flight “is likely to be a pair years off,” says Roger Handberg, an area coverage knowledgeable on the College of Central Florida. “NASA would seemingly return to SpaceX for extra flights, additional disadvantaging Boeing.”
Boeing wants OFT-2 to go nicely for causes past simply fulfilling its contract with NASA. Neither SpaceX nor Boeing constructed its new autos to hold out ISS missions—they every had bigger ambitions. “There’s actual demand [for access to space] from high-net-worth individuals, demonstrated because the early 2000s, when a number of flew on the Russian Soyuz,” says Autry. “There’s additionally a really robust enterprise in flying the sovereign astronaut corps of many international locations that aren’t able to construct their very own autos.”
SpaceX will show to be very stiff competitors. It has private missions—its own and through Axiom Space—already slated for the following few years. Extra are certain to return, particularly since Axiom, Sierra Space, and different corporations plan to construct non-public area stations for paying guests.
Boeing’s largest downside is price. NASA is paying the corporate $90 million per seat to fly astronauts to the ISS, versus $55 million per seat to SpaceX. “NASA can afford them as a result of after the shuttle issues the company didn’t wish to turn out to be dependent upon a single flight system—if that breaks, every thing stops,” says Handberg. However non-public residents and different international locations are prone to plump for the cheaper—and extra skilled—possibility.
Boeing may undoubtedly use some good PR today. It’s constructing the principle booster for the $20-billion-and-counting House Launch System, set to be essentially the most highly effective rocket on the earth. However excessive prices and large delays have turned it into a lightning rod for criticism. In the meantime, alternate options like SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy and Tremendous Heavy, Blue Origin’s New Glenn, and ULA’s Vulcan Centaur have emerged or are set to debut within the subsequent few years. In 2019, NASA’s inspector normal looked at potential fraud in Boeing contracts worth up $661 million. And the corporate is among the principal characters on the heart of a criminal probe involving a earlier bid for a lunar lander contract.
If there was ever a time Boeing needed to remind individuals what it’s able to and what it could do for the US area program, it’s subsequent week.
“One other failure would put Boeing to date behind SpaceX that they may have to think about main modifications of their strategy,” says Handberg. “For Boeing, that is the present.”
